Ether (ETH) is trading around $3,300, and a futures market trend suggests further upside of 10% to 25%. However, the market may initially experience a liquidation-induced price decline before a sustained recovery occurs.
Key Takeaways:
-
Ether's leverage ratio is near 0.60, a price that has historically preceded increases of 10% to 25% after transient setbacks.
-
ETH SOPR stays below 1, suggesting that realized losses still outweigh gains despite recent price gains.
Ether’s leverage is favoring an uptrend after a transient shakeout
Crypto analyst Pelin Ay highlighted a recurring structure in Ether’s leverage dynamics. When the leverage ratio on Binance quickly rises above the worth, it leads to short-lived bearish moves that unwind overleveraged long positions, followed by strong bullish reactions.
This pattern occurred several times in 2025, most notably in February, April, September and November. An analogous sequence occurred in October, when a pointy rise in leverage triggered a sudden decline before the trend resumed.
The estimated leverage ratio of ETH on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant
The debt ratio is currently around 0.60, which is comparatively high. What is noteworthy is that leverage isn’t decreasing despite the recent price increases, indicating continued risk appetite. Pullbacks at these leverage levels preceded increases of 10% to 25%, suggesting that Ether could still be positioning itself for a powerful move higher after a recent run of liquidity.
Meanwhile, Glassnode analyst Sean Rose noted a divergence within the behavior of ETH holders. Although Ether outperformed Bitcoin from January lows, ETH's issued gains ratio stays below 1, suggesting that aggregate losses outweigh gains. This suggests that the conviction of ETH spot holders is weaker in comparison with BTC participants.
Comparison between BTC and ETH SOPR. Source: Glassnode/Sean Rose
The data suggests that ETH is overdue for a decline
Ether posted its highest day by day close since November 12, 2025 at $3,324. A 25% rebound from here would take ETH above $4,100, however the likelihood of a slight decline stays high.
Ethereum in the future chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
On the day by day chart, Ether formed an order block between $3,050 and $3,170 in the course of the recent impulse. This zone coincides with the Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP) control point, an indicator that highlights the worth level at which the most important trading volume has occurred since September 2025.
The price could fall back to this level since it is a good value area where buyers and sellers have previously agreed on the worth.
Hyblock data supports this view, showing net long concentration above $500 million between $3,040 and $3,100. Such close positioning increases the likelihood of a short-term push into this area and potentially sets the stage for a stronger continuation move thereafter.
Net long positions for Ethereum. Source: Hyblock Capital
This article doesn’t contain any investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks and readers should conduct their very own research when making their decision. While we attempt to offer accurate and up-to-date information, Cointelegraph doesn’t guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the data in this text. This article may contain forward-looking statements which can be subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph won’t be answerable for any loss or damage arising out of your reliance on this information.
