According to Wintermute, retail traders spooked by October's massive crypto liquidation fled back to major cryptocurrencies as their hopes of an altcoin season were dashed.
Since around 2022, retail traders have been net sellers of majors like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), preferring altcoins as an alternative, but that pattern broke in 2025, based on Wintermute's “Digital Asset OTC Market 2025” report released on Tuesday.
The October 10 liquidation event and market crash “marked a transparent turning point” and accelerated the retail return to Bitcoin and Ether, the corporate said.
The data shows that retail investors actively reduced their exposure to the majors on the time, but quickly returned to them after the record leverage flush.
“This shows the immediate defensive posture following the liquidation shock and the growing concerns about contagion and an impending bear market.”
Wintermute reported that retail positioning had converged to institutional by year-end, “prioritizing liquidity and resilience over peripheral risks.”
The “defensive consolidation” of retail shifted back to the majors. Source: Wintermute
The altcoin rallies lacked conviction
The return to the majors prevented an altcoin season this cycle, and altcoins performed “significantly worse” in 2025.
“Narratives continued to emerge but failed to realize traction,” the report said.
The average altcoin rally lasted about 19 days in 2025, in comparison with about 60 days the yr before, “reflecting lower conviction and greater tactical risk-taking,” Wintermute added.
This doesn’t mean that there was a scarcity of narrative, but fairly that the market “showed clear signs of exhaustion” and rallies quickly faded.
From 2022 to 2024, altcoin rallies typically lasted 45 to 60 days with persistent narratives including memecoins and AI. However, the common duration of altcoin rallies in 2025 was only 20 days.
“This caused altcoin rallies to feel like tactical trades fairly than strong conviction trends.” 
Altcoin rallies lasted lower than half the time in 2025. Source: Wintermute
Fears of an October crash are easing
While altcoins have yet to experience any real momentum heading into 2026, fears and panic over October's crash have subsided, resulting in renewed confidence for the longer term.
Earlier this month, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said: “I feel one among the explanations we saw a rally in the beginning of this yr is because investors put October 10 on the back burner.”
According to CoinGecko, the whole market capitalization is at its highest level up to now this yr, having risen 10%, or $300 billion, since January 1, reaching $3.34 trillion on Wednesday.
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