ETH’s recent rally was fueled by spot demand and healthy use of futures market leverage, potentially setting Ether up for one more run higher toward $4,000.
Ether (ETH) futures and spot markets are sending mixed signals as futures positioning builds, however the altcoin's price fails to achieve latest highs. The data suggests that ETH traders are increasing their exposure at the same time as spot buying supports the recovery.
Key Takeaways:
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Ether's estimated leverage ratio fell to 0.67 by Sunday from an all-time high of 0.79 on Jan. 2, despite rising open interest.
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Aggregate spot CVD rose with the rally, indicating spot-led demand with a bullish positioning bias.
Open interest in Ether is recovering, but the value is lagging
Aggregate open interest (OI) for Ether futures has returned to levels prior to the 38% decline within the fourth quarter of 2025, while ETH continues to be trading roughly 27% below its opening price on October 10, 2025. This divergence suggests that traders are rebuilding their exposure.
Ether Open Interest and Price. Source: X
This view is supported by the proven fact that Ether's estimated leverage ratio peaked at 0.79 on January 2nd before falling to 0.67 on January eleventh. While OI continues to rise, the decline in leverage suggested healthier positioning and lower risk of cascading liquidations.
Meanwhile, the recent rally was driven by rising cumulative spot volume delta (CVD), not futures CVD. This indicates net market buying within the spot market, which is often related to longer-lasting price movements. The ratio of long to short accounts, which is near 2.66, reflects a bullish bias with no signs of traders entering the market aggressively.
ETH price, spot CVD, futures CVD and long/short ratio. Source: Coinalyze
ETH staking flows and macro signals provide tailwind
Onchain data shows growing long-term conviction. Lookonchain reported that on Monday, BitMine staked 110,000 ETH value $340 million, bringing the three-week total to around $3.7 billion. At a 2.8% return, this might net the corporate nearly $95 million in ETH annually.
From a market structure perspective, BecauseBitcoin CEO Max noted that the Russell 2000 ETH has historically led price discovery. With the index hitting a brand new all-time high of two,664, conditions might be favorable for ETH expansion in the approaching weeks.
Historical price comparison of Russell 2000 and ETH. Source: Max/X
Crypto investor Jelle echoed this view, saying that Ether turning major weekly resistance into support “feels pretty big,” adding that a robust higher low after last 12 months's crash leaves $4,000 as a key hurdle. Additionally, ETH “could finally have its moment,” the investor noted.
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