If 2026 becomes a classic bear market 12 months, Bitcoin (BTC) faces a “death or die” price point.
Key points:
-
Four-year Bitcoin price cycles and bear markets remain relevant, says latest Power Law evaluation.
-
2026 could see a showdown of BTC price support with $65,000 as a key level.
-
History requires price to “catch up” to power law targets.
Bitcoin bear markets remain
A brand new evaluation from Jurrien Timmer, director of world macro at Fidelity Investments, identifies $65,000 as the following key BTC price battleground.
After holding onto its power law trendline for much of the present bull market, BTC/USD could now be due for a retest of a lower support line – currently at $45,000.
“It now follows the Internet S-curve much closer than the facility law curve,” Timmer admitted.
The power law attempts to provide price a “fair value,” and history shows that trips toward the support line have often been accompanied by long-term lows.
“Currently, the sand line for Bitcoin is $65,000 (previous high) and below that’s $45,000. The latter is the facility law trend line,” Timmer continued.
“That’s still a great distance off, but when Bitcoin consolidates over the following 12 months, this trend line could approach $65,000 and grow to be a survival line within the sand for Bitcoin.” Bitcoin power law data. Source: Jurrien Timmer/X
The evaluation questioned whether Bitcoin remains to be subject to a four-year price cycle. For Timmer, halving cycles have less and fewer impact on price over time, but bear markets will still exist.
In his response, CEO David Eng agreed that bear markets will remain a feature of Bitcoin as a mature asset.
“The concept that Bitcoin has evolved into an S-curve price regime with no bear market misunderstands how prices are formed,” he argued.
“Bitcoin is a scarce asset within the economic system and never a standalone S-curve just like the Internet.” 
Bitcoin valuation models. Source: Jurrien Timmer/X
Eng added that Bitcoin now faces longer price cycles and lower overall volatility.
The “compressed” BTC price needs a recovery
As Cointelegraph reported, four-year cycles became a subject of dialogue within the Bitcoin community after 2025 was within the red.
BTC/USD has never ended a 12 months after the halving lower than it began, and reactions have included abandoning the cycle theory entirely.
However, Eng predicts that the “compressed” power law values would require a recovery rally to the upside.
“Bitcoin will not be stalling, but is moving below its long-term law of growth, and the story goes that the answer will come from price catching up, not law giving way,” he told X Followers this weekend.
Bitcoin is compressed below its law of growth, and the compression all the time resolves upwards
Bitcoin still follows a single power law with exceptional stability (R² ≈ 0.96) over greater than 15 years. Bubbles and crashes are fluctuations, not regime changes.
• Spot (~$90.5K) is ~25% below… pic.twitter.com/OWVwG4Vgas
– David 🇺🇸 (@david_eng_mba) January 10, 2026
This article doesn’t contain any investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks and readers should conduct their very own research when making their decision. While we attempt to supply accurate and up-to-date information, Cointelegraph doesn’t guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the data in this text. This article may contain forward-looking statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph is not going to be accountable for any loss or damage arising out of your reliance on this information.
