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The Bitcoin price ended last 12 months within the red, despite reaching all-time highs above the six-digit valuation mark on several occasions. Although the market leader has made a solid begin to 2026, there are still concerns about BTC's prospects in the approaching months, particularly related to the four-year cycle theory.
Why $65,000 might be crucial on this cycle
In a recent post on the X platform, Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, commented on the present structure of the Bitcoin price. The market expert said that the leading cryptocurrency has taken a breather in recent months and has underperformed other assets corresponding to gold in 2025.
Timmer revealed that Bitcoin is deviating from the historically steep power law curve and as a substitute follows the Internet S-curve. This structural change also opened the door to the continued discussion about Bitcoin's typical cyclical behavior.
According to several experts, Bitcoin's traditional halving-driven four-year cycle is now dead and a brand new structural bullish wave appears to be spreading across the market. Proponents of the statement “Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is dead” often cite institutional adoption and spot exchange-traded funds as evidence of the brand new bullish market structure.
While Timmer agrees that the relevance of the BTC halving event is decreasing, the Fidelity director of Global Macro rejected the concept that there would not be bear markets within the leading cryptocurrency. “I’m skeptical, not due to the waning power of the halving cycle (which I agree with), but due to the concept that there can be no more bear markets,” Timmer said.
From a technical perspective, Timmer identified $65,000 – across the high of the previous cycle – as an important level for the worth of Bitcoin. Meanwhile, the subsequent most significant level is around $45,000, the ability law trend line.
Source: @TimmerFidelity on X
For comparison, the ability law is a mathematical model that implies that Bitcoin's growth follows a predictable and consistent trajectory. This metric, often used to discover essential levels in price evaluation, shows the correlation between BTC's value and time.
Timmer noted that while the ability law trend line is way from the present BTC price, it could rise to $65,000 if the flagship cryptocurrency enters an prolonged period of consolidation next 12 months. This could make the $65,000 level a fair more essential area for Bitcoin price.
Bitcoin price at a look
As of this writing, the worth of BTC is around $90,520, reflecting no notable movements within the last 24 hours.
The price of BTC within the each day timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Presented by DALL.E, chart by TradingView
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