After losing greater than 4% in the ultimate week of the 12 months, gold (XAU/USD) gained bullish momentum as trading conditions normalized.
Despite entering a consolidation phase after the rally earlier within the week, XAU/USD managed to post weekly gains. December inflation data from the US and geopolitical developments could determine gold's performance within the short term.
With the BTC dollar down 26% since its October peak, an enormous capital rotation towards precious metals is underway.
YTD rankings:
PLATINUM: +159%
SILVER: +155%
GOLD: +72%
COPPER: +40%
Given the looming supply shortage, analysts expect copper to enter the “real price discovery” phase in 2026. … pic.twitter.com/UH8X4r3W91
– BeInCrypto (@beincrypto) December 26, 2025
Gold prices are recovering after a bearish end to 2025
Gold posted heavy losses between the Christmas and New Year holidays. In the absence of fundamental drivers, profit-taking gave the impression to be the trigger for this move, which was reinforced by low trading volumes.
As market conditions began to normalize, XAU/USD gained momentum, rising greater than 2.5% on Monday.
Gold price chart last month. Source: TradingView
Additionally, escalating geopolitical tensions following news of the US military's invasion of Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife over the weekend meant gold benefited from safe-haven inflows.
After the worth prolonged its rally on Tuesday, gaining one other 1%, renewed strength within the US dollar (USD) and CME Group's decision to extend margins on gold and silver futures caused XAU/USD to lose traction.
Data released by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) showed on Wednesday that U.S. private sector employment rose by 41,000 in December after a decline of 29,000 in November.
Also on a positive note is the report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) that the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the services sector improved from 52.6 in November to 54.4 in December.
Additionally, the PMI survey's employment index rose into expansion territory above 50 for the primary time since June.
As this data confirmed that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would maintain its monetary policy in January, gold prices fell barely in the midst of the week before entering a consolidation phase.
Gold and silver mining stocks proceed to react to intraday movements in precious metal prices, although these fluctuations are irrelevant to current valuations or future earnings. Investors miss the incontrovertible fact that these stocks are ridiculously low-cost even with much lower precious metal prices.
– Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) January 9, 2026
Meanwhile, China has announced export controls on silver (XAG/USD). Due to this development, silver prices rose sharply firstly of the week, gaining greater than 10% in two days.
On the topic, it says: “China ranks second in world silver mining production, however the Chinese dominate the silver market as a result of their huge refining capability. The country controls 60 to 70 percent of the world's refined silver supply.” said Mike Maharrey, FXStreet contributor and market analyst at Money Metals Exchange.
Although the CME's margin increase led to a pointy correction in XAG/USD, the gold/silver ratio, which measures the variety of ounces of silver required to buy one ounce of gold, fell by almost 4% this week.
At around 57, the gold/silver ratio is currently at its lowest level since August 2013.
On Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that non-farm payrolls rose by 50,000 in December, in comparison with the market expectation of 60,000.
On a positive note, the unemployment rate fell to 4.4% from 4.6% in November. The market's response to the roles data was short-lived and gold remained within the upper half of its weekly range through the weekend.
Keu US economic events within the second week of January 2026
Gold traders are specializing in geopolitics and US inflation data
The economic calendar will likely be relatively sparse when it comes to data releases. On Tuesday, the BLS will release December consumer price index (CPI) data.
Retail sales and the producer price index for November may also be included within the US economic file, which can likely be largely ignored by market participants.
December inflation data is unlikely to materially influence the Fed's January decision, but a big surprise, particularly in monthly core CPI data, could trigger a market response.
A reading of 0.3% or higher could reignite concerns about continued inflation and supply a near-term boost to the USD.
Conversely, a reading below 0.2% could have the other impact on currency performance and help XAU/USD trend higher.
Investors will likely be keeping an in depth eye on geopolitical headlines throughout the week. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio plans to fulfill with officials from Denmark and Greenland.
In an interview with the NY Times, US President Donald Trump reiterated his intention to take over Greenland. “Personal responsibility could be very essential,” Trump told the newspaper.
“Because that's what I believe is psychologically vital for achievement. I believe that ownership gives you something that you would be able to't do anything with, you discuss a lease or a contract. Ownership gives you things and elements that you would be able to't get by just signing a document.”
It is difficult to say what the longer term developments will likely be on this matter, but an escalation of tensions between the EU and the US may lead to investors searching for refuge.
In this scenario, gold could gain strength.
Unrest in Iran, led by anti-government demonstrations across the country, including within the capital Tehran, could also impact risk sentiment within the near term.
President Trump said the US could take military motion against Iran if authorities use lethal force against protesters.
A worsening conflict in Iran and lively U.S. involvement could allow gold to proceed benefiting from safe-haven inflows.
The post Weekly Gold Forecast: Volatile Start to 2026 as Markets Evaluate US Data and Geopolitics appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Article source: beincrypto.com
The post Weekly Gold Forecast: Volatile Start to 2026 as Markets Evaluate US Data and Geopolitics appeared first on Crypto Adventure.
