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A Coinbase research director has warned that advances in quantum computing could pose greater risks to Bitcoin than easy wallet theft.
According to David Duong, the corporate's global head of investment research, future quantum machines could have the ability to interrupt the cryptographic signatures that secure transactions and will also give quantum-powered miners a significant speed advantage – two separate threats that will affect each user funds and Bitcoin's economic model.
Quantum risk goes beyond keys
Duong said a few third of Bitcoin's supply might be structurally exposed because their public keys are already visible on the blockchain. This number is slightly below 33%, or about 6.51 million BTC, stored in address types where public keys are exposed and will theoretically be converted into private keys by a sufficiently powerful quantum computer. Reports have highlighted that this compromise is primarily as a consequence of address reuse and older wallet formats.
Experts say there are two important technical threats
Signatures are a threat. Quantum algorithms like Shor's could recuperate private keys from public keys at scale, allowing attackers to sign transactions and siphon funds.
The second is a possible mining problem: a sufficiently fast quantum miner could find proofs of labor much faster than classic rigs, which might affect incentives and block production. Duong and others emphasize that signature risk is theoretically more short-term, because it only requires cracking signatures tied to disclosed public keys.
What the industry is doing
The conversation has reportedly already reached fund managers and standards bodies. Some institutional submissions have begun to point to quantum risks, and NIST and other bodies are advancing work on post-quantum cryptography for broader systems.
BTCUSD is trading at $92,010 on the 24-hour chart: TradingView
Engineers within the crypto space are searching for migration paths that will swap quantum-resistant schemes, although such a change in Bitcoin can be complex and require broad approval.
A protracted-term problem, not a right away one
Duong and other commentators note that today's quantum machines are far too small and noisy to crack Bitcoin's cryptography. The warnings confer with a possible future time limit, sometimes called “Q-Day,” when a machine large and stable enough could run Shor and related algorithms on a big scale. Schedules vary widely between experts; Some expect a long time, others say the gap is narrowing faster than many predicted.
According to industry sources, coins remaining in addresses which have already enabled public key vulnerability are most in danger when a well-structured quantum machine is deployed. This makes best practices – reminiscent of avoiding address reuse and moving old balances to latest, quantum-resistant addresses as they grow to be available – sensible steps. But there isn’t a easy one-click solution across the complete ecosystem, experts say.
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