Zcash’s technical and fundamental catalysts increase the likelihood that ZEC price will decline as little as $200 in the approaching weeks after core developers exit the project.
Zcash (ZEC) slipped greater than 20% to around $381 on Thursday, marking its weakest price in three weeks, as markets reacted to the sudden resignation of the core development team at Electric Coin Company (ECC).
Key insights:
ZEC/USD hourly price chart. Source: TradingView
Former CEO Josh Swihart confirmed that the team will probably be forming a brand new company to proceed privacy-focused development. But his reassurance didn’t lift market sentiment, leading many analysts to predict an additional decline in Zcash prices in the longer term.
But how low can ZEC price fall?
Zcash descending channel increases crash probability by 40-50%
According to a technical setup shared by analyst Osemka, the value of ZEC could fall by one other 40-50% in the approaching weeks.
Price began correcting after testing the upper trendline of its prevailing descending channel pattern, resembling a November pullback that led to a 58% correction a month later.
ZEC/USD day by day chart. Source: TradingView/Osemka
At the identical time, ZEC price broke below a support confluence of a rising trendline and a 20-day exponential moving average (20-day EMA; the blue wave within the chart above).
While the rising trendline had supported its 85% recovery move last month, the 20-day EMA limited Zcash's downside attempts through the over 1,000% rally in late 2025.
A break below this confluence increases the likelihood of ZEC falling towards the lower trendline of the ascending channel, across the $200-$250 area, in the approaching weeks.
Zcash Bear Flag Target: $275-$300
Starting Thursday, Zcash broke out of its prevailing bear flag pattern, reinforcing the bearish bias.
Source: X
After the sharp sell-off within the $550-$580 range, ZEC entered a brief upward consolidation capped by descending resistance, a typical bear flag pattern that usually peters out to the downside.
ZEC/USDT day by day chart. Source: TradingView
The measured movement pointed to the $275-$300 zone if the pattern fully takes hold. This goal area closely aligned with the 200-day EMA (the blue wave), making it a probable bearish magnet in the approaching weeks.
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