Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $92,733 as of this writing, continuing its recovery rally after spending weeks below $90,000. However, the pioneer cryptocurrency now faces a significant test: the US Supreme Court ruling on President Trump's global tariffs, scheduled for January ninth.
The decision could force the Treasury Department to refund $133 billion to $140 billion to importers, causing volatility in cryptocurrency, stock and bond markets.
Crypto investors are preparing for a possible shock on January ninth
At the guts of the case is the query of whether Trump exceeded his authority in imposing tariffs that he said generated around $600 billion in revenue.
The justices return from a four-week break to issue their opinions Friday at 10 a.m. ET. A call against the tariffs would result in immediate financial stress and political uncertainty.
High probability of invalid tariffs
Prediction markets highlight the perceived risk, with Polymarket citing a 22% likelihood of maintaining Trump's tariffs. This means a 78 percent likelihood that the Supreme Court will strike down the tariffs.
Likelihood of a Supreme Court ruling in favor of Trump tariffs. Source: Polymarket
“This Friday shall be the worst day of 2026! Trump claims that the tariffs have brought in around $600 billion. So if the court cancels the tariffs, the query in the marketplace's immediate mind is: How much shall be refunded and the way quickly? Classes.
The impact goes beyond refunds, as a sudden reversal could increase volatility in traditional and digital markets. Bitcoin could be very sensitive to macroeconomic and political shocks and might be subject to large price fluctuations.
Macro conditions increase risk for Bitcoin
Current market conditions make crypto and the broader financial markets vulnerable. Stock valuations are stretched, corporate spending stays high and passive investment flows have concentrated risk on key indices.
Against this backdrop, a significant policy shock could force rapid adjustments affecting each institutional and personal participants.
The analyst suggested that bond yields could rise, stocks could fall and cryptocurrencies could follow. Other analysts identified that Trump's loss within the trial was considered one of the most important undervalued risks in today's markets.
Trump's lack of the US Supreme Court customs case represents the most important risk to markets that virtually nobody is giving due consideration to, and it looks just like the president knows the final result of the ruling. https://t.co/x8oxCKojO3 pic.twitter.com/cqM6j4Pwic
– JustDario (@DarioCpx) December 8, 2025
The ruling could even have broader implications for trade, inflation and cross-border flows. Tariff changes could impact import costs, corporate margins and available liquidity for decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms and tokenized assets that depend on international capital flows.
While Bitcoin's rally is technically significant, it now faces a highly uncertain environment as January ninth could mark a pivotal moment for each crypto and the broader financial markets.
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Article source: beincrypto.com
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