XRP (XRP) began 2026 with strong momentum, rising nearly 30% since January 1 and briefly outperforming much of the broader crypto market.
No Aggressive Buyers Behind XRP's 30% ReboundXRP 2022 Fractal Continues to Warn of More Pain
XRP/USDT every day price chart. Source: TradingView
On the surface, the move looks like a clean breakout fueled by renewed optimism and positioning for the brand new 12 months. Under the hood, nonetheless, market structure data tells a way more cautious story.
No aggressive buyers behind XRP’s 30% rally
According to data highlighted by analyst Dom in a January sixth X post, XRP's rally was not fueled by sustained buyer buying.
Notably, the token's cumulative spot volume delta (CVD), which measures the balance between aggressive buyers and sellers, showed a particularly negative value on major exchanges. This highlighted increasing pressure on the sell-side whilst the XRP price rose, suggesting that the rally occurred without buyers aggressively increasing their offers.
Cumulative XRP spot volume delta vs price chart. Source: Cathedral
For the rally to proceed, analysts say XRP needs clear structural confirmation: a continued positive CVD, stronger supply-side activity, and buyers willing to take supply at higher levels. Without this shift, the uptrend stays fragile and vulnerable to a setback if sentiment changes.
Dom's outlook appeared just as XRP didn’t close above its 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA; the blue wave) at around $2.34, plunging over 3% after testing it as resistance on January sixth.
XRP/USDT every day price chart. Source: TradingView
The pullback occurred across the upper trendline of the prevailing descending channel pattern, increasing the likelihood of a deeper correction towards the lower trendline. This represented an 18-20% correction within the $1.80-1.82 range by February 2026.
The XRP 2022 fractal again warns of further pain
XRP's recovery has parallels to its decline in 2021-2022, a period that ultimately went south. At this point, the value continued to rise despite the momentum fading, leading to a bearish divergence on the relative strength index (RSI). This signal marked a vital cycle high and was followed by a decline of around 85%.
Weekly XRP/USDT price chart. Source: TradingView
The subsequent downward trend was not linear. XRP led several aggressive recovery rallies, especially after interacting with the 100-week exponential moving average (EMA), with some rallies exceeding 100%. Still, these moves didn’t alter the broader market structure as price repeatedly stalled below a long-term descending resistance line.
The same structure develops again. XRP stays below each the descending trend line and the 100-week EMA, so downside risks remain. A transparent reclaim of those levels would improve the outlook and produce the $3.00 area near the 1.618 Fibonacci extension into focus. Otherwise, the token could face a decline towards the $1.61-$1.97 range.
