According to analyst Steph is Crypto, XRP (XRP) is on the right track to repeat gold's multi-year rally in 2026.
Key Takeaways:
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XRP tracks gold's past breakout structure and supports targets of $8 to $10 if the fractal holds.
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Failure to recapture the 100-week EMA could see XRP fall back to the $1.61-$1.97 range.
Gold’s fractal suggests an XRP price of $8-10 next
The optimistic outlook was based on the recovery in gold prices at the tip of 2022, which got here after two years of consolidation within the range of $1,620 to $2,055.
During 2020-2022, the dear metal formed the classic five-wave structure of Elliott Wave Theory, including a descending channel pattern during wave formation 3-4, as shown below.
XAU/USD two-day chart. Source: TradingView
In November 2022, gold clearly broke through its long-term resistance. A sustained period of expansion followed, with prices rising by around 180%, reaching record highs of around $4,550 in December 2025.
XRP’s recent price performance bears striking similarities to gold’s 2020-2022 consolidation phase.
XAU/USD vs. XRP/USD two-day chart. Source: TradingView/Steph is crypto
After spending months in a descending channel (Wave 3-4), XRP price rose nearly 30% in the primary week of 2026, breaking this structure and signaling bullish momentum for the approaching 12 months.
Steph's chart showed $8-10 because the XRP price goal in 2026, representing a 230-310% increase from current levels.
“What stands out is how closely XRP follows the identical path, just delayed in time,” the analyst wrote, adding:
“Hard assets are inclined to move first. Higher beta assets follow. Gold has already made its move. XRP is just beginning to respond.”
What could invalidate the bullish XRP setup?
XRP’s current recovery can be much like the 2021-2022 bearish phase. At that point, rising prices coupled with a falling relative strength index (RSI) formed a bearish divergence and marked a macroeconomic peak that led to an 85 percent correction.
During this downtrend, XRP experienced sharp countertrend rallies, often after testing the 100-week exponential moving average (EMA), with some recoveries extending beyond 100% gains.
Weekly XRP/USD price chart. Source: TradingView
However, these moves did not reverse the general trend as the worth continued to be capped by a descending trend line.
In 2026, XRP continued to trade below each the downtrend line and the 100-week EMA, suggesting that the bear market might not be completely over yet.
A decisive reclaim of those levels could initiate a move towards $3.00 near the 1.618 Fibonacci level, while failure risks a pullback to the $1.61-$1.97 zone.
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This article doesn’t contain any investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks and readers should conduct their very own research when making their decision. While we attempt to offer accurate and up-to-date information, Cointelegraph doesn’t guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the data in this text. This article may contain forward-looking statements which can be subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph won’t be answerable for any loss or damage arising out of your reliance on this information.
