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After a difficult 2025 for the altcoin sector, optimism is growing amongst investors concerning the potential for an early altcoin season in 2026. This speculation includes not only established altcoins, but additionally memecoins which have struggled over the past yr.
Understanding Altcoin Cycles
In a current one post On social media site X (formerly Twitter), analysts from Bull Theory examined the critical elements needed for an altcoin breakout this yr.
An vital point is that altcoin cycles don’t arise randomly. Historically, they typically start once Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies bottom after which begin to interrupt out.
For example, within the fourth quarter of 2016 ALT/BTC ratio reached its bottom before breaking out, resulting in a sturdy altcoin rally in the primary half of 2017.
An analogous pattern emerged at the tip of 2020, resulting in significant gains for altcoins in early 2021. This created a transparent trend of a low followed by a breakout, with altcoins subsequently outperforming Bitcoin.
The ALT/BTC ratio is showing signs of recovery
Currently, the ALT/BTC ratio has been in a downtrend for nearly 4 years. Technical indicators point to a possible trend reversal; The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at essentially the most oversold level in history, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) turns green for the primary time in 21 months, indicating a possible bullish crossover.
These signals suggest that the downtrend can have bottomed within the fourth quarter of 2025, setting the stage for a possible breakout harking back to previous altcoin runs.
Analysts also drew attention to the connection of those assets with the stock market, specifically Russell 2000 indexwhich recently broke its previous all-time high. This index reflects investors' broader appetite for risk and has served as a precursor to altcoin rallies up to now.
In each late 2016 and late 2020, a Russell breakout was followed by a big rise in altcoins. As the Russell 2000 has now broken out again within the fourth quarter of 2025, it’s reflecting patterns seen immediately before previous altcoin rallies.
Improving market conditions
Despite these promising indicators, some may wonder why this cycle appears to be lagging. Many investors expected an altcoin season to occur in 2024, but analysts point this out Key trigger were absent during this time.
Factors reminiscent of a shrinking Federal Reserve (Fed) balance sheet, tight liquidity and low risk appetite dampened enthusiasm. However, towards the tip of 2025, conditions began to enhance, suggesting that the cycle has shifted but continues to be very much intact.
Ultimately, Bull Theory analysts conclude that the expected peak season is approaching based on the indisputable fact that the ALT/BTC ratio appears to have bottomed out within the fourth quarter of 2025 and the Russell 2000 managed a breakout throughout the same period. liquidity has improved and greater regulatory clarity is anticipated by 2026.
The every day chart shows ETH price rallying above $3,000. Source: ETHUSDT on TradingView.com
Ethereum (ETH), the leading altcoin available in the market, is trading at $3,200 and has registered a gain of virtually 10% within the last seven days. However, this was surpassed by XRP, which recorded a remarkable 21% gain over the identical period.
Featured image of DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
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