Key Takeaways:
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Bitcoin has risen above $90,000, but options data shows traders aren’t comfortable with downside risks.
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Bitcoin spot ETF outflows and low demand for leverage suggest investors remain cautious about short-term gains.
Economic uncertainty limits Bitcoin price recovery
Bitcoin (BTC) jumped above $90,000 on Saturday, leading traders to query whether the momentum is enough to succeed in $95,000 for the primary time in seven weeks.
Although the S&P 500 was trading just 1.3% below its all-time high, investors became increasingly concerned a couple of deteriorating economic situation, particularly after electric vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA US) reported disappointing sales.
Nasdaq index futures (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView
Tech-heavy Nasdaq index futures did not reclaim the 26,000 level because the sector continued to be torn between optimism about artificial intelligence and risks related to weaker U.S. jobs data.
According to Bloomberg, Tesla's total deliveries within the fourth quarter were 418,227 units, down 15% from 495,570 a 12 months earlier. Tesla shares fell 2.5% on Friday and remain 12.2% below their all-time high.
In contrast, there was moderate optimism in China after shares of Chinese technology company Baidu (BIDU US) rose 15%. The company filed for an IPO with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to spin off its artificial intelligence chip unit, Kunlunxin.
The tech sector has clearly supported the Nasdaq's 20% gains in 2025, but traders fear valuations are overly stretched.
BTC hits multi-week highs but leverage stays cool
Demand for leveraged bullish BTC positions remained unchanged on Saturday, despite Bitcoin rising back to its highest level since December twelfth.
Bitcoin's price has remained in a comparatively tight 6% range over the past 20 days, leaving investors increasingly uneasy because the breakout above resistance continues to be delayed.
Bitcoin 2-month futures base rate. Source: laevitas.ch
The base rate of interest for Bitcoin futures was below the neutral threshold on Friday, indicating a insecurity from bulls.
The current 4% annual premium over spot markets reflects traders' fears that U.S. import tariffs could weigh on the broader economy. On the positive side, the recent retest of $85,000 on December 19 was not enough to trigger broader bearish sentiment.
Daily net inflows of the US-listed spot Bitcoin ETF, USA. Source: CoinGlass
The lack of demand for leveraged bullish Bitcoin positions can also be related to selling pressure in Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Since December 15, these products have seen net outflows of greater than $900 million.
Meanwhile, gold ETFs posted seven straight weeks of net inflows, potentially indicating weaker confidence in U.S. economic growth amid rising concerns over the federal government's fiscal position.
Skepticism persists near $90,000, but there is no such thing as a panic
To determine whether Bitcoin whales and market makers have turned bullish after the three.2% rise over two days, it’s crucial to look at activity within the BTC options market.
Bitcoin 1-month options delta skew (put call) at Deribit. Source: laevitas.ch
Bitcoin put (sell) options traded at a premium on Saturday as skilled traders demanded more compensation for downside price risk.
Although the indicator stays within the neutral range of -6% to +6%, it continues to be removed from turning bullish, which is often signaled by an inverted put-call skew. BTC derivatives suggest continued skepticism near $90,000, although there are clearly no signs of excessive fear.
Inflation stays a significant concern because the US government looks to introduce tax incentives to stimulate the economy. According to the CME FedWatch tool, bond futures markets only estimate a 16% likelihood that rates will fall to three.25% or lower by April.
Currently, Bitcoin derivatives traders don’t expect further price increases and confidence is prone to slowly recuperate after a month-long consolidation near $89,000.
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