XRP entered the newest quarter under intense pressure after a pointy sell-off worn out much of its earlier gains. The Q4 decline has put the altcoin on target to finish 2025 in negative territory.
Despite this setback, hope stays that investor buying activity could try and reverse the momentum before the top of the yr.
XRP holders sold at a loss
On-chain realized gains and losses data shows that sales were unusually aggressive within the fourth quarter. XRP holders exited their positions at a loss, an indication of fading confidence. Historically, investors in large-cap tokens are likely to ride out declines and anticipate an eventual recovery slightly than experience losses.
This cycle looks different. Selling at a loss suggests increased uncertainty about XRP’s near-term prospects. The behavior suggests that risk aversion outweighed long-term conviction and contributed to continued downward pressure in the course of the quarter.
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XRP realized profit/loss. Source: Glassnode
The past is coming to an end
XRP’s broader performance context illustrates the challenge. The current market cycle threatens to finish a two-year streak of positive annual returns. In 2023, XRP rose 81%, followed by a 238% increase in 2024, driven by improving regulatory clarity and speculative demand.
In contrast, the yr 2025 was characterised by weaker momentum. If current levels proceed, XRP could end the yr down around 11%. This reversal highlights how changing macroeconomic conditions and investor sentiment can disrupt even strong historical trends.
XRP annual returns. Source: TradingView
Does XRP have a probability?
Despite the decline, activity on the XRP ledger declined at the top of December. Network data shows that the variety of energetic trading addresses has reached a monthly low of 34,005. The declining participation suggests that re-engagement from each retail and institutional users is weak.
Higher transaction activity often correlates with increasing demand. Low usage can support price decline by affecting liquidity and losing the reinforcing utility interest. This decline towards the top of the yr may very well be attributable to strategic positioning ahead of 2026 slightly than short-term speculation.
XRP price could change direction
XRP is trading at around $1.85 on the time of writing, down 11% for the reason that start of 2025. To neutralize the annual losses, the token must get better to $2.10. Reaching this level would allow XRP to complete the yr flat and maintain its long-term performance record.
However, downside risk stays for now if market conditions deteriorate. Failure to take care of the $1.85 mark could end in a slide towards $1.70. Such a move would invalidate the bullish thesis and ensure a negative year-end result, extending uncertainty into early 2026.
A recovery path is determined by defending $1.85 support with increasing participation. Holding this level could allow a rally towards $1.94. Breaking this resistance is crucial to turning $2.00 into support and clearing the ultimate hurdle towards the $2.10 goal.
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Article source: beincrypto.com
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