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Bitcoin’s price motion over the past week perfectly reflects its performance this yr. The leading cryptocurrency experienced incredible levels of volatility throughout the week, fluctuating between $90,000 and $86,000 over the past few days.
The latest market assessment shows that the longer term of Bitcoin price could look bleaker than mere periods of sideways volatility. According to a distinguished cycle, BTC's price cycle has reversed and is in a bear market.
Bitcoin's Cyclical Behavior Depends on Demand Cycles: CryptoQuant
In its latest market report, blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant has linked the regular decline in Bitcoin price to the slowing demand boom. According to data from the on-chain platform, BTC demand growth has slowed throughout 2025, signaling the start of a bear market.
CryptoQuant highlighted that Bitcoin has experienced three major waves of spot demand for the reason that start of the bull cycle in 2023 – triggered by the launch of the US spot ETF, the results of the US presidential election and the Bitcoin treasury bubble. However, demand growth has slowed for the reason that starting of October 2025.
Not surprisingly, this reversal in demand growth coincides with the October 10 market bloodbath, one in every of the most important liquidation events in cryptocurrency history. Since then, Bitcoin price has struggled to mount a convincing recovery, falling as little as $82,000 in late November.
Source: CryptoQuant
CryptoQuant further hypothesized that a key pillar of price support has been removed as nearly all of this cycle's incremental demand has already been realized. For example, demand from institutional and large-scale investors is declining as US-based Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) change into net sellers within the fourth quarter of 2025.
According to CryptoQuant data, US spot ETF holdings fell by 24,000 BTC within the fourth quarter of 2025, a far cry from the regular accumulation seen within the fourth quarter of 2024. “Similarly, addresses holding 100-1,000 BTC – representing ETFs and treasury corporations – are growing below trend, reflecting the decline in demand in late 2021 ahead of the 2022 bear market,” the blockchain firm added.
In addition to the weakening of spot demand, the Bitcoin derivatives market also experienced lower activity and risk appetite. CryptoQuant announced that BTC funding rates have fallen to their lowest level since December 2023, an on-chain signal that implies traders are less willing to keep up long-term commitment; This trend is commonly related to bear markets.
Ultimately, the blockchain company concluded that Bitcoin's four-year cycle depends more on demand phases – expansions and declines in demand growth – than the halving event. Essentially, a bear market occurs after BTC demand growth peaks and collapses.
What's next for the BTC price?
In its report, CryptoQuant revealed that the Bitcoin price structure has deteriorated in keeping with weak demand. The flagship cryptocurrency is currently trading below its 365-day moving average, a key long-term support level that has historically separated bull and bear phases.
According to CryptoQuant, bearish indicators suggest that the Bitcoin bear market might not be as deep as feared. As in previous bear seasons, the realized price – currently around $56,000 – has been identified as a possible bottom.
This implies a possible 55% correction from the recent all-time high, Bitcoin's smallest decline on record (during a bear market). Meanwhile, the market leader’s median support level is around $70,000.
As of this writing, the worth of BTC is around $88,170, up 3% within the last 24 hours.
The price of BTC within the each day timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
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