Quantum computers still can't crack Bitcoin, but several major blockchains are preparing for a future where they may.
Last week, Aptos proposed post-quantum signature support as Solana tested quantum-resistant transactions. Meanwhile, parts of the Bitcoin community renewed their calls to speed up work on quantum-safe upgrades.
These developments indicate growing concerns about cryptocurrencies. Investors argue that rejection of quantum risk by influential voices is weighing on the value of Bitcoin (BTC), which has fallen 24% within the last three months.
While altcoin blockchains experiment with post-quantum protections through opt-in upgrades and test networks, Bitcoin stays divided over how publicly and urgently quantum risks ought to be addressed.
Some investors say the rejection of quantum risk is impacting the value of Bitcoin. Source: CoinGecko
How blockchains prepare without sounding the alarm
Ethereum has made it clear why quantum computing is now being treated as a technical problem and never a distant hypothesis.
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has argued that even a low-probability consequence requires early preparation when the price of failure is high and the time required to migrate global systems is measured in years.
Citing forecast models, he said the probability that quantum computers able to cracking today's public-key cryptography could come to market before 2030 is about 20%, with the typical estimate closer to 2040. Buterin reportedly said that there aren’t any machines that may crack Bitcoin or Ethereum today, but waiting for certainty is inherently dangerous since transitioning a worldwide network to post-quantum systems can take years.
Predictive models predict a 20% probability that powerful quantum computers can be about five years away. Source: Vitalik Buterin
This formulation has begun to be reflected in other major blockchains, particularly those who can experiment without reopening fundamental debates.
Aptos has proposed adding post-quantum signature support on the account level through an opt-in upgrade that may leave existing accounts untouched. The proposal relies on a hash-based signature scheme and is future-proof reasonably than a response to an instantaneous threat. Users can adopt the brand new schema on demand without forcing a network-wide migration.
Solana has taken the same stance through testing reasonably than deployment. In collaboration with post-quantum security firm Project Eleven, the network recently ran a dedicated testnet with quantum-resistant signatures to judge whether such schemes might be integrated without compromising performance or compatibility.
Quantum resistance is increasingly being viewed as a due diligence consideration by investors. Source: Solana/Austin Federa
The Bitcoin quantum debate is admittedly about trust
Bitcoin relies on elliptic curve cryptography to confirm ownership. Control of funds is proven by a personal key, while only the corresponding public key’s disclosed on the chain.
In theory, a sufficiently powerful quantum computer running Shor's algorithm could work backwards from a public key to get better the private key, allowing an attacker to spend money without there being any obvious signs of theft. From the network's perspective, these coins would simply move as if their owner decided to transact.
Even proponents of post-quantum upgrades generally acknowledge that cryptographically relevant machines are still years away. But the argument within the Bitcoin community is over how Bitcoin should reply to a risk that’s distant, uncertain, and difficult to detect once it occurs.
On the one hand, developers and long-time Bitcoin cryptographers argue that classifying quantum computing as a pressing concern does more harm than good.
Despite the net debates, Bitcoin researchers are actively studying post-quantum systems. Source: Jonas Nick
Blockstream CEO Adam Back has repeatedly dismissed short-term quantum fears, emphasizing that practical quantum attacks are many years away. He claimed that the amplification of quantum risks was fueling panic and inspiring markets to cost in a threat that doesn’t yet exist.
On the opposite hand, investors and researchers argue that even a low probability of an consequence matters for an asset whose value relies on long-term trust. Castle Island Ventures partner Nic Carter has described influential developers' outright rejection of quantum risk as pessimistic.
Nic Carter explains why quantum risk is making investors paranoid. Source: Nic Carter
Craig Warmke of the Bitcoin Policy Institute has also warned that perceived complacency is pushing some capital to maneuver away from Bitcoin, no matter whether the underlying technical fears are accurately articulated.
This tension explains why proposals like Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 360, which might introduce quantum-resistant signature options, are generating outsized reactions despite their early and preliminary status.
Proponents see early work as a approach to reduce uncertainty and signal preparedness. Critics see the identical discussion as legitimizing a speculative threat and confusing Bitcoin's resilience.
Why quantum uncertainty has a special meaning for Bitcoin
Quantum computers cannot destroy Bitcoin or another major blockchain today. What is already happening is that uncertainty about quantum risk is affecting the best way different networks communicate and the way investors interpret those decisions.
Outside of Bitcoin, post-quantum work has been defined as infrastructure. Opt-in upgrades and test networks allow blockchains to signal readiness without forcing users or markets to rethink current security assumptions. This approach limits the reputational cost of early preparation while maintaining flexibility as schedules change.
Bitcoin has different restrictions. Because its value is closely tied to long-term assurances of security and sturdiness, discussions in regards to the future-proofing of its cryptography are inclined to attract immediate scrutiny. What is perhaps seen elsewhere as routine contingency planning might be read more as a commentary on Bitcoin's fundamentals.
Influential voices around Bitcoin fear that emphasizing distant risks will result in misunderstanding and panic. Investors worry that minimizing these risks indicates an absence of contingency planning. Both sides reply to how trust develops when there aren’t any clear timelines.
The quantum debate suggests that for Bitcoin, managing the best way long-term risks are discussed could also be as essential as managing the risks themselves.
