After a 12 months of unexpected turmoil in crypto markets, 2026 could mark a turning point driven by regulatory clarity, accelerated stablecoin adoption and an improving macroeconomic environment, in accordance with a brand new outlook from Coinbase Institutional.
In its 70-page report, Coinbase Institutional said digital assets have evolved “from a distinct segment market to an emerging pillar of the worldwide market infrastructure,” at the same time as price volatility and uneven liquidity characterised much of 2025.
Looking forward, Coinbase's institutional arm expects clearer global regulatory frameworks to offer stronger policy guardrails and support innovation and long-term market readiness.
Rather than one other retail-driven boom-and-bust cycle, 2026 is being described as a 12 months of institutional integration and regulatory maturity, with clearer rules allowing for greater participation by traditional financial players.
In the United States, Coinbase Institutional pointed to groundbreaking policy developments, including advances in stablecoin laws equivalent to the GENIUS Act and momentum toward broader crypto market structure law, as key aspects in the subsequent phase of adoption.
These efforts are expected to influence every little thing from risk management and compliance standards to institutional portfolio strategies.
Coinbase Institutional calls the evolution of US crypto policy a key consider a potentially transformative 2026. Source: Coinbase Institutional
Stablecoins remain probably the most established use cases for cryptocurrencies, and Coinbase Institutional predicts significant expansion in the approaching years. His model predicts that the stablecoin market could grow to roughly $1.2 trillion by 2028, driven by increasing usage in payments, settlements, payroll, and cross-border remittances.
After years of rapid expansion, Coinbase Institutional's model predicts the stablecoin market could reach $1.2 trillion by 2028. Source: Coinbase Institutional
Nevertheless, the outlook falls in need of complete optimism. Coinbase Institutional described its macroeconomic expectations as “cautiously optimistic,” arguing that while economic growth may remain uneven, the U.S. economy has shown greater resilience than recent data suggested.
Ongoing inflation risks and the timing of possible rate of interest cuts remain necessary variables that might influence the crypto market recovery through 2026.
Bitcoin’s volatility profile is changing
One of Coinbase Institutional's key observations is that Bitcoin's volatility profile has steadily evolved. Instead of standing out as an extreme outlier amongst major asset classes, Bitcoin's volatility now resembles that of high-growth technology stocks, the report said.
Coinbase pointed to Bitcoin's (BTC) historical 90-day volatility, which fell to around 35% to 40% by the tip of 2025 after being above 60% in mid-2024. The slowdown got here at the same time as the market embraced major structural changes, including the approval and launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
Bitcoin’s volatility profile is now comparable to that of major technology stocks. Source: Coinbase Institutional
Still, 2025 proved to be a volatile and emotionally charged 12 months for Bitcoin holders. The asset experienced sharp price swings and reached latest cyclical highs before undergoing a pointy correction later within the 12 months because of increased leverage and compelled liquidations within the crypto markets.
While such moves have reignited debate over Bitcoin's role as a shelter, Coinbase Institutional said 2025 is ultimately a milestone 12 months. The report described Bitcoin as “firmly established as an important a part of the worldwide financial discussion,” at the same time as it continues to face the growing pains of a maturing asset class.
