Key insights:
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ETFs, government bonds and macro tailwinds could break Bitcoin's four-year boom-and-bust pattern.
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A downward phase mustn’t be ruled out before recent all-time highs.
Bitcoin (BTC) has historically moved in four-year cycles related to its halving events, with prices typically peaking 12 to 18 months after each supply cut before sliding into an prolonged bear market.
This time it was no different. Bitcoin peaked at nearly $126,200 in October, exactly eighteen months after the April 2024 halving, before declining by greater than 30%.
BTC/USDT weekly chart. Source: TradingView
The trend aligns with the early stages of past bearish periods and has veteran analysts like Peter Brandt predicting Bitcoin will fall toward $25,000 in the approaching months.
Bitcoin traders sell at a loss
João Wedson, founding father of on-chain analytics firm Alphractal, pointed to the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) trend signal, a metric that signals the top of the Bitcoin bull market.
Trend signal of Bitcoin's Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). Source: Alpharactal
Historically, SOPR marked market turning points by tracking shifts between profit-taking and loss-making selling.
In bull markets, SOPR remained above 1 as coins were sold for profit, often ahead of local highs. Near the underside, it fell to or below 1, which was an indication that a loss had been recognized.
A sustained rally above 1 later marked easing selling pressure and past rallies.
In December, SOPR trended downward, showing that BTC was issued with less profit or loss. This supported the bearish narrative based on the four-year cycle.
“You may consider that Bitcoin’s cycles have modified and that this time is different,” Wedson said, adding:
“But on-chain evaluation shows that BTC continues to follow its fractal cycle, just as before, and nothing has modified thus far.”
New Bitcoin record high in June 2026: Grayscale
However, several market observers noted that Bitcoin's four-year cycle may now not be applicable.
On Monday, US-based Grayscale Investments predicted that the value of BTC would hit a brand new record high in the primary half of 2026, citing growing macroeconomic demand on account of currency devaluation and a supportive regulatory environment within the US.
“Fiat currencies (and fiat currency-denominated assets) face additional risks on account of high and rising public sector debt and its potential impact on inflation over time,” Grayscale wrote in its latest report, adding:
“Scarce commodities – whether physical gold and silver or digital Bitcoin and Ether – can potentially function ballast in portfolios for fiat currency risk.” 
U.S. federal government debt relative to GDP. Source: Grayscale
Bitcoin will enter an excellent cycle like commodities: Fidelity
Fidelity shared a similarly optimistic outlook in its 2026 crypto outlook report.
The investment firm discussed the likelihood of Bitcoin entering a “supercycle,” analogous to the commodity supercycles within the 2000s that spanned nearly a decade.
At the guts of this view is what Chris Kuiper, vp of research at Fidelity Digital Assets, called an “entirely recent cohort and sophistication of investors” that would support an extended market expansion than in past cycles.
“We have seen traditional asset managers and investors beginning to buy Bitcoin and other digital assets,” he said, adding:
“I feel we’ve only scratched the surface so far as the potential sum of money they might bring to this area.”
In December, US Bitcoin ETFs backed by BlackRock, Fidelity and others collectively held over 1.30 million BTC (~$114.13 billion), a 309% increase since their debut in January 2024.
US Bitcoin ETF Balance. Source: Glassnode
At the identical time, public corporations had $1.08 million (about $100.42 billion) of their treasuries, an investor cohort that hardly existed before 2020.
Bitcoin treasury balance. Source: Glassnode
As the role of Bitcoin miners diminishes with each halving, recent demand from ETFs and company treasuries could change the boom-and-bust dynamics which have characterised Bitcoin's four-year cycle prior to now.
This article doesn’t contain any investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks and readers should conduct their very own research when making their decision. While we attempt to offer accurate and up-to-date information, Cointelegraph doesn’t guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the knowledge in this text. This article may contain forward-looking statements which might be subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph is not going to be accountable for any loss or damage arising out of your reliance on this information.
This article doesn’t contain any investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks and readers should conduct their very own research when making their decision. While we attempt to offer accurate and up-to-date information, Cointelegraph doesn’t guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the knowledge in this text. This article may contain forward-looking statements which might be subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph is not going to be accountable for any loss or damage arising out of your reliance on this information.
