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Bitcoin (BTC) is once more moving in a good band, with price fluctuations limited despite changing macroeconomic signals and a brand new debate over whether the cryptocurrency's long-observed four-year cycle still holds.
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As traders react to mixed messaging from the Federal Reserve, institutional moves and increasing caution in risk markets, analysts remain divided over whether Bitcoin's recent consolidation represents stability or a deeper shift within the asset's behavior.
The price of BTC is trending downwards on the day by day chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview
Analysts wonder if the cycle is over
A growing variety of major firms are actually arguing that Bitcoin could also be moving beyond its historical halving rhythm. Investment firm Bernstein said in a recent note that the asset is in an “prolonged bull cycle,” pointing to minimal ETF outflows despite a correction of nearly 30%.
The company raised its 2026 price goal to $150,000, forecast a possible cycle peak of $200,000 in 2027 and maintained a long-term estimate of $1 million in 2033.
ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood echoed this view, saying institutional adoption reduces the likelihood of the sharp 75-90% declines seen in previous cycles. Grayscale has also suggested that Bitcoin could break the four-year pattern and predicts renewed strength in 2026.
Bitcoin is currently trading between $90,000 and $93,000 depending on the venue, with recent intraday fluctuations highlighting a scarcity of strong directional conviction.
Fed signals keep markets cautious
The Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate of interest cut initially improved risk sentiment, but a shift to cautious, data-dependent language quickly reversed the momentum.
Bitcoin and Ethereum slipped following the announcement, with BTC falling below $90,000 at one point as traders reassessed the macro backdrop. Liquidity stays low, contributing to choppy movements in key crypto assets.
Analysts note that Bitcoin's inability to sustain gains despite the weaker dollar and the Fed's softer stance reflects ongoing uncertainty. Several commentators say BTC needs to remain above $90,000 to avoid more bearish pressure, while a break above $94,500 could pave the best way back towards $100,000 if inflows improve.
Derivatives and on-chain data indicate rising bearish sentiment
Options and on-chain indicators also signal caution. Traders have increased their bearish options positions, with the put/call ratio turning positive ahead of a big expiration window. More than $500 million price of cryptocurrency liquidations occurred in 24 hours, reflecting increased volatility.
On-chain data shows weakening bullish momentum. The Bitcoin Bull Score Index has fallen back to zero and the realized losses suggest that further decline might be possible. Analysts warn that despite previous buy-the-dip patterns, current values don’t yet reflect the degrees typically related to market bottoms.
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As Bitcoin continues to trade in a good range, the broader debate stays unresolved. Whether the four-year cycle fades or just pauses may rely upon how markets process macroeconomic uncertainty, institutional inflows and the following wave of economic data.
Cover image from ChatGPT, BTUSD chart from Tradingview
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