According to on-chain metrics reviewed by market analyst Diana, XRP's exchange supply has fallen below its price curve for the primary time as greater than a billion tokens have left exchange wallets in a three-week window.
1.35 billion
1.35 billion XRP leave the exchanges despite price weakness
Glassnode data shows that XRP's exchange balance fell from about 3.8 billion tokens in the beginning of 2025 to about 1.6 billion in December, a drop of greater than 1.35 billion tokens in three weeks. The reduction represents a forty five% decrease within the liquid supply available on public order books.
Source: X
The supply drop got here as XRP fell from the $3.40 zone in October to the $2.00-$2.10 range in December. Diana noted that in the information she collected, the exchange's supply line is now below XRP's price curve for the primary time, which she describes as a shift in the way in which tokens move during price weakness.
She said the pattern shows that holders continued to remove tokens at the same time as prices fell, suggesting that enormous buyers could also be moving assets into private custody somewhat than selling them available on the market.
In this scenario, buyers absorb supply over-the-counter, causing price motion to stay flat even during publicly visible liquidity declines.
This move leaves fewer tokens available on the market on exchanges, which can impact how the market responds when demand increases.
A market with a lower liquid supply may react more sharply when recent bids are received. If the order books contain fewer tokens, even a moderate net purchase may end up in larger fluctuations than usual.
This dynamic has not yet existed is reflected in XRP's price motion, with the token trading inside a decent range, nevertheless it stays a spotlight for traders being attentive the following breakout point.
Triangle structure pushes the worth to around $2.05
At the identical time, XRP is trading inside a symmetrical triangle on the 4-hour chart. Analyst Ali Martinez published the structure with the upper trendline at around $2.32 and a rising lower trendline at around $1.88. Data from CoinMarketCap suggests the worth is around $2.05 to $2.06.
Martinez said a break on either side of the pattern could end in an estimated 16% move based on the peak of the formation. He noted that XRP's direction will depend on where volume occurs, because the structure has a decent balance between rising bids and lower highs.
The combination of lower stock market supply and price compression makes the following breakout crucial to near-term direction. With fewer tokens on exchanges, price movements may speed up as liquidity returns, while breaking below the boundaries near $2.32 keeps pressure on the support within the $2.00 area.
