Key Takeaways:
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XRP price fell 7.5% this week despite the upcoming Ripple Swell event, which has led to pre-conference rallies up to now.
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XRP’s rounded top chart pattern predicts a decline to $2.09 if support levels usually are not held.
Ripple's annual Swell conference, scheduled to happen November 4-5 in New York, guarantees a program that represents one in every of the strongest intersections between crypto, US politics and traditional finance.
However, XRP (XRP) bulls have largely ignored the potential impact of the event, as the worth has fallen 7.5% since Monday while continuing its prevailing downtrend, as shown below.
XRP/USD four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Ripple’s Swell Conference vs. XRP price
Ripple's Swell 2025 is a pivotal meeting on the role of blockchain in regulated finance, attracting over 600 participants from 40 countries, including White House crypto advisor Patrick Witt and executives from BlackRock, Nasdaq, Citi and BNY Mellon.
We are pleased to welcome @patrickjwitt from the White House Digital Assets Council to our keynote speaker program at Ripple Swell 2025.
This is a conversation you possibly can't miss.
LAST CHANCE: The deadline to request your invitation to participate is tomorrow, October twenty fourth.
Join… pic.twitter.com/8n3s70tdSU
– Ripple (@Ripple) October 23, 2025
The agenda highlights the XRP Ledger (XRPL)'s compliance with ISO 20022 standards and highlights its utility in tokenizing real-world assets (RWAs) and facilitating cross-border payments.
There may even be a session titled “The Impact of Tokenized Financial Assets on Capital Markets,” featuring Maxwell Stein, director of digital assets at BlackRock, and Moody's executives.
A live demo of stablecoin settlements on XRPL and keynotes from CEO Brad Garlinghouse and Nasdaq's Adena Friedman highlight XRP's potential as a bridge for institutional liquidity, potentially accelerating adoption in treasury management and DeFi integrations.
In the past, swell events have triggered short-term increases in XRP prices, often driven by partnership announcements and hype. In 2017, before the San Francisco edition, the XRP price doubled from $0.20 to over $0.40 with the launch of xRapid.
At the 2018 Toronto event, XRP rose 50% within the lead-up to the conference, driven by announcements including the expansion of MoneyGram.
Even on the Singapore meeting in 2019, XRP gained 32% prematurely, helped by RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan's keynote speech on global remittances. However, volatility following the event led to a 30% correction in a classic sell-the-news scenario.
While the Miami Swell event saw modest gains of 10% in 2024, reflecting the SEC's overhang, regulatory clarity in 2025 following the dismissal of the appeal was expected to amplify echoes of past booms.
However, this doesn’t appear to be the case because the XRP price stays below $3.
XRP price risks a 16% decline
The XRP chart paints a bearish picture on shorter time frames and is trading at $2.49 after testing the $2.37 support level. An 8% drop in volume during the last 24 hours suggests waning buyer confidence.
A rounded top pattern on the four-hour chart, formed since October 22, suggests a continuation of the downtrend. The position of the Relative Strength Index below the 50 level and the MACD cross point below the midline indicate further downside.
The bears are actually focused on pulling XRP back to the pattern’s neckline at $2.37. A four-hour candlestick decline below this level would pave the best way for an extra decline towards the rounded top measured goal at $2.09, a 16% decline from current price.
The key moving averages acting as resistance are the 50-period SMA (Simple Moving Average) at $2.55 and the 200-period SMA at $2.84.
As Cointelegraph reported, the persistent rejection from the 20-day EMA at $2.53 suggests that bears are on top of things and risk a decline in XRP to $2.20 or lower.
This article doesn’t contain any investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks and readers should conduct their very own research when making their decision.
