On November 11, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is predicted to rule on the proposed Hedera (HBAR) spot ETF. If approved, it will be the primary US-listed ETF to directly track a token outside of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). The decision could open the institutional floodgates for HBAR – but how high can the token realistically rise?
How the HBAR ETF got here about
Canary Capital LLC, a US digital asset fund, filed a registration on Form S-1 with the SEC in late 2024. The document proposed the creation of a Hedera Hashgraph Trust that may hold real HBAR tokens and issue shares reflecting their market value. The goal was easy: to offer traditional investors with a simple, regulated solution to take part in HBAR without directly owning crypto.
In March 2025, Nasdaq joined the method and filed a Form 19b-4 to list the shares on its exchange under the ticker symbol “HBR.” This filing officially began the SEC's 240-day review period. By June 10, 2025, the agency published a notice confirming the request, but postponed its decision, citing the necessity for “further evaluation.” An extra delay followed on September ninth, setting the ultimate deadline at November eleventh.
Behind the scenes, Coinbase Custody Trust Company was chosen to guard the underlying HBAR tokens – the identical custodian used for approved Bitcoin ETFs. Meanwhile, Grayscale Investments registered parallel trusts for HBAR, Litecoin (LTC), and Bitcoin Cash (BCH), suggesting that altcoin ETFs are finally facing serious regulatory scrutiny.
The approval could possibly be a turning point
HBAR's network design makes a robust case for institutional acceptance. Hedera Hashgraph uses a Directed Asymmetric Graph (DAG) consensus system – faster and more energy efficient than traditional blockchains. The governing council includes Google, IBM, LG, Boeing, Dell and Standard Bank, adding corporate credibility rarely present in cryptocurrencies.
These aspects are essential for giant investors. A spot ETF would allow hedge funds, pension managers and company treasuries to achieve exposure through regulated brokers quite than crypto exchanges. This bridge between traditional finance and Web3 could significantly increase liquidity.
In the past, spot ETF approvals have been crucial:
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Bitcoin ETFs approved in January 2024 raised over $12 billion in the primary month, helping BTC rise greater than 60%.
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Ethereum ETFs approved in May 2024 attracted nearly $9 billion by the third quarter of 2025, driving the worth of ETH up 30%.
Given HBAR's smaller market cap – around $7 billion at $0.17 – even a fraction of those inflows could have an outsized impact.
HBAR/USD price chart. Source: CoinMarketCap
Speculation surrounding the ETF has already impacted the worth of HBAR. In August 2025, reports linking BlackRock to a possible HBAR ETF application sparked a 5% intraday spike. In September, following the SEC's announcement of a delay, HBAR briefly fell 4% but then rebounded as traders priced in likely approval.
How high could HBAR rise?
Analysts are optimistic and their estimates depend upon the extent of institutional inflows and network adoption.
If the ETF sees even modest inflows – just like smaller Bitcoin funds – HBAR could reach $0.40 to $0.50, a rise of around 190% from current levels.
Source: X
ETF approval alone doesn’t guarantee price increases. Following the launch of the Bitcoin ETF, BTC briefly corrected by 12% before resuming its upward trend. Ethereum also recorded a sideways trend for weeks after the approval. HBAR price could face the same sell-the-news decline before any longer-term impact occurs.
Other risks include:
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Token Unlocks: Hedera still must release around 8 billion HBAR, which could lead on to selling pressure.
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Market volatility: A delay in US rate of interest cuts or global risk aversion can stall crypto rallies.
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Regulatory delays: Even a small extension of the SEC proceedings beyond November 11 could trigger temporary outflows.
