Key Takeaways:
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Deteriorating US-China relations, US President Donald Trump's recent tariff expansion and traders avoiding long leverage are adding downward pressure on Bitcoin.
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Bitcoin could fall below $100,000, but analysts are confident that macroeconomic events next week will reverse the downtrend.
Data shows Bitcoin's (BTC) market structure is aiming to strike equilibrium after last week's sharp correction, but increasing headwinds from Trump's renewed tariff war with China and the record-breaking length of the U.S. government shutdown are affecting bullish investors' willingness to open recent positions in futures markets.
Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, Coinbase Premium Index and cumulative spot volume delta (the web difference between market buying and selling) for skilled and retail investors at Coinbase have shown a gradual upward trend since Bitcoin sold to $107,000 on the exchange on October 10.
Detect Bitcoin ETF net inflows. Source: SoSoValue
As shown within the chart below, the amount delta, funding, and open interest dynamics of the Bitcoin markets have evolved for the reason that sell-off on October tenth. US retail and institutional investors are clearly accumulating BTC, while Binance perpetual futures traders (red line) have been selling aggressively.
Comparing the Binance spot to its futures volumes (third panel), the spot delta is positive, while the negative perpetrator delta highlights rising short positions, reinforcing the view that perpetrator-driven selling is amplifying the downtrend, while spot buyer demand provides strength at $107,000 to $108,000.
An alternative view of this expression is shown below.
Considering Bitcoin's potential short-term price movement, the Liquidation Heatmap Outlook (Binance, Bybit, BitMEX) suggests that momentum traders could track liquidation clusters for long positions at $106,300 to $104,000, and short positions at $115,000 are in peril of being closed out.
Although prices are expected to stay high within the short term, Lekker Capital Chief Investment Officer Quinn Thompson said:
“The 10/10 liquidation achieved more leverage in dollars and % of OI than the whole January-April 2025 period. The opportunities ahead are just like those before Trump won in 2024.”
Macroeconomics-focused account Tom Capital followed in the identical vein, reminding traders to “trade only on price motion” as the following week is anticipated to bring quite a few actionable events.
Over the following week, you'll likely must navigate these narratives:
– Release of US CPI
– Possible reopening of the US government
– Fed rate cut (future rate cuts)
– Nikkei hits 50,000
– Gold coating
– TACO or not (Trump's self-imposed 100% tariffs against China, etc.)
Or you may…
— Tom Capital (@Tom__Capital) October 21, 2025
This article doesn’t contain any investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks and readers should conduct their very own research when making their decision.
