Bitcoin (BTC) begins a brand new week at a key crossroads as evaluation sees the chance for a brand new short squeeze.
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Bitcoin closes the week above a key 200-week trendline, resulting in renewed conviction for a visit to $75,000.
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Liquidations remain high, with one trader noting that long positions are more likely to rule the roost going forward.
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US inflation data is accumulating, leaving volatility in risk assets for later within the week.
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Bitcoin on-chain profitability data paints a dangerous picture: the web profit and loss ratio is at its highest level in three years.
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Losing UTXOs suggest that Bitcoin could also be at the beginning of a brand new bear market.
Bitcoin faces 2024 range and “loads of uncertainty”
Bitcoin posted a surprisingly quiet weekly candle close on Sunday, but traders understand the importance of the present price range.
At around $68,800 on Bitstamp, the weekly close was above a key long-term trendline that might be crucial for future upside, in response to data from TradingView.
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) is currently at $68,343, forming certainly one of two adjoining lines within the sand for market participants. The other is Bitcoin's old all-time high from 2021 at just over $69,000.
BTC/USD one-day chart with 200-week EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
“We are back in an old vital area that has held the worth for seven months!” wrote trader CrypNuevo in its latest X evaluation.
CrypNuevo noted the prolonged range construction centered on the $69,000 level that BTC/USD formed in 2024.
He noted that last week the pair filled almost half of its wick to 15-month lows set in early February – something that could possibly be vital for overall price motion.
“So Bitcoin could fluctuate here for a while, meaning the worth could test the lows of the range,” the evaluation continued.
“Only if: 1. Bitcoin falls back to the wick filling level of fifty% (signal for 100% wick filling). 2. Acceptance below 100% wick.” 
BTC/USDT weekly chart. Source: CrypNuevo/X
CrypNuevo called a rally to $75,000 the move that would trigger a “surprise rally,” adding that Bitcoin “tends to do the other of market sentiment.”
“There is loads of uncertainty for the approaching week. Also, Monday is a vacation within the US, so erratic volatility is anticipated (probably low volatility on this present day),” he concluded.
BTC/USDT weekly chart. Source: CrypNuevo/X
The crypto liquidations amount to around 70,000 BTC
Despite BTC's relatively low price volatility since recovering from lows of $59,000, the market stays extremely sensitive to even smaller moves.
This is reflected in increased liquidations across the crypto space, with each long and short positions repeatedly extinguished near the spot price.
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass puts the entire liquidation amount for the 24 hours to the time of writing at over $250 million. During this time, BTC/USD hovered in a spread of lower than $3,000.
Crypto liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass
CoinGlass now shows traders doubling their long BTC positions slightly below $68,000 earlier within the week.
Trader CW said in its commentary that these would now change into the following goal for whales.
CW had some potentially excellent news for bulls as long positions still prevail in the present market situation.
“Despite significant liquidation of $BTC longs, longs remain dominant. Bullish expectations remain intact,” they told X followers.
On Friday, as BTC/USD surged above $70,000 across the Wall Street open, short liquidations surpassed even recent records. At 10,700 BTC, the short liquidation number reached its highest each day value since September 2024.
“If spot demand follows, this squeeze could possibly be the primary sign that the downtrend is running out of steam,” crypto exchange Bitfinex wrote in an X response.
Crypto liquidation history (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
PCE and GDP lead volatile macro week
With U.S. markets closed on Monday for the Presidents Day holiday, key economic data – and associated volatility in risk assets – might be released later within the week.
Chief among the many upcoming releases is the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index, generally known as the Federal Reserve's “preferred” inflation indicator. Fourth quarter GDP data is anticipated on the identical day, Friday.
The release of the PCE comes at an important time for Fed policy – recent inflation numbers have provided a mixed picture of the economic situation and created uncertainty in markets. Expectations that the Fed will return to easing monetary policy at its March meeting remain low, although last week's consumer price index (CPI) fell wanting expectations.
The likelihood that officials will keep rates of interest at current levels next month stays above 90%, in response to CME Group's FedWatch tool.
“Expect more volatility this week,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter told X-Followers, summarizing upcoming macroeconomic events.
“In the meantime, geopolitical tensions remain and macroeconomic uncertainty is elevated.” 
Probabilities of Fed goal rates of interest for the March FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group
In the most recent edition of its regular newsletter The Market Mosaic, analyst firm Mosaic Asset Company also highlighted that last week's US jobs report could pose a possible problem for the Fed.
“The report clouds the prospects for further rate of interest cuts by the Federal Reserve, as market-implied odds point to 2 quarter-point rate cuts later this 12 months. However, the two-year Treasury yield, which drives changes within the federal funds rate, is near the lower end of the present Fed funds range and doesn’t indicate any cuts,” it said.
The evaluation puts the highlight on the mid-$50,000 range
In recent market research published on Monday, on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant said future BTC price lows will increasingly depend upon “investor resilience.”
Looking back at the primary half of February, writer GugaOnChain warned that a showdown could occur if two key price points below $60,000 converge.
Here, Bitcoin's 200-week easy moving average (SMA) corresponds to its total realized price – the general level at which on-chain supply was last moving.
“Bitcoin’s 50% plunge toward the 200-period moving average on the weekly time-frame – which converges with its realized price region at $55,800 – might be a major test and will even be viewed by analysts as a region conducive to accumulation,” GugaOnChain wrote in a Quicktake blog post.
“However, the turnaround to recovery now is determined by investor resilience.” 
Bitcoin realized price. Source: CryptoQuant
The research also pointed to comparatively low values of the web unrealized gains/losses (NUPL) indicator – a measure of the profitability of overall BTC holdings.
NUPL is currently at 0.201 after recovering from lows of 0.11 on February sixth. The latter value represents the bottom level of the indicator since March 2023.
GugaOnChain described NUPL as being “within the fear zone.”
Bitcoin NUPL. Source: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin May Still Miss “Real Bottom”
Other on-chain profitability data goes even further, warning that the present BTC price drop could possibly be only the start of a “regime change.”
Here CryptoQuant used the adjusted spending output profit ratio (aSOPR) – a metric that measures the proportion of coins moving higher on the chain in comparison with their previous transaction.
aSOPR discards coins which have been moved greater than once inside an hour, helping to remove “noise” from transactions that don’t necessarily represent a loss for the holder.
On February 6, the metric fell below its breakeven value of 1, indicating realized losses on a scale not seen since 2023 and the top of Bitcoin's last bear market.
“Similar values occurred in 2019 and 2023 during deep correction periods where coins were issued at a loss,” commented contributor Woo Minkyu in one other Quicktake post.
“Each time, this zone represented pressure to give up and a structural reset. Now aSOPR is encroaching on the identical region again.” 
Bitcoin aSOPR chart (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
Woo described the present market structure as one which is “just like previous bear transition phases.”
“Unlike mid-cycle pullbacks where aSOPR quickly reaches 1.0, this move shows continued weakness and recognition of losses. If aSOPR doesn’t reach 1.0 soon, this increases the likelihood that we are usually not in a straightforward correction but are moving right into a broader bear phase,” he warned.
The aSOPR is currently 0.996, having only managed temporary spikes above breakeven over the past month.
“aSOPR signals structural deterioration. This looks less like a slump and more like a regime change,” Woo concluded.
“The actual bottom may require more compression before an enduring reversal forms.”
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